Hi guys, hi from Andrea Unger, I’m back home, I’ve been to Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur and this was my third IFTA annual congress.
Third IFTA annual congress and third year where I came back with the confirmation about the direction of technical analysis.
What I got from this conference which by the way was really well organized,is that I saw presentations again about studies of the markets and these studies were normally represented with numbers.
Numbers are there to confirm the hypothesis we are basing our studies on and to be able to evaluate them.
In the past we were accustomed to reading about theories.
Theories with “some numbers” but not the final numbers we were interested in: how much can be made using this approach? Or does it really work and to what extent?
In the past we were used to deal with head and shoulders, support and resistance, wedges, any kind of setup which was fine and certainly helped enormously to learn how to trade the markets and to understand the charts, but now whatever is presented comes with numbers, which means if I see this, I try this, I got this.
So from the last part of this presentation we can get immediately an answer about the question: does it work?; and also how does it work?
In terms of numbers, numbers that is money, but actually we measure in money every results.
This is very useful because doing so we can immediately get how the results look like, of course if they are positive or not.
If they are negative we don’t care, but if positive, are they positive the right way? Could I use that? Would I feel comfortable in using this or maybe the type of distribution of results is not something I could cope with?
All things like that.
In these three years of conferences I saw a lot of interesting presentation where numbers were produced.
This is so important. I mean the classical Chartist approach has been mostly substituted by a quantitative approach and this is so important because it is clearly driving in the direction I’d be living in for the last N years (I don’t say how much or I would feel old).
I’ve been trading and I’m trading with trading systems, I’ve always said that trading systems help me to understand what I’m doing and to measure what I’m doing.
I’m not saying that automated trading is the only way to make it possible, I mean to make trading for a living possible, absolutely not, that would be false, but it is clearly a helpful way to do it because you can always measure what you are doing.
This is something I’ve always said and obviously it is helping in making decision based on numbers and not on feelings, which is another thing that helps because it sort of cuts emotions out.
Emotions will still be there clearly, but if you test, you measure and then you follow up you have a clear set of numbers to base your decisions on and not only on your personal feeling in the moment.
Those enters and exit are based on specifics set ups again measured by numbers and not by lines on a chart.
Lines can be fine, everything that is on the chart approach is absolutely fine but of course a quantitative analysis helps enormously in making the best decisions for you, for your own psychology and your way of trading.
IFTA again showed me with high value presentation that this is the direction where the analytics world is going.
I found people who I never thought could make it, I mean not because I thought they were stupid or limited but just because they were identified by indicators or charts and now they are showing numbers in analysis, I’m not telling you the name, because that could be misleading to some extent, because I have always had a great consideration of them but maybe somebody thinks: “He was thinking they were not good and now that they deal with numbers they are!”
No! Absolutely not!
I’ve just said that I know now, but these people have always been dealing with numbers, I just saw a part of what they were really doing.
So guys if you want to do something in trading, you can do it through a systematic way because this helps in making decisions.
Not because it’s the only way, if somebody presents it that way I don’t think so, I always said discretional trading can be fine but I do it systematically just because I feel more comfortable and I think it’s easier to put on brick by brick all your kingdom, let’s say, of trading.
That’s it guys, see you next time, with some more technical content.
Ciao from Andrea Unger.