Hi guys hi from Andrea Unger.
Today I want to talk about coincidences.
It seems like those stories who some Gurus invent, but this is true, everything is really true.
I was presenting a webinar about the Forex and in this webinar, I was showing how some common approaches promoted by literature don’t make money.
How they really don’t work and how testing these ideas shows with the numbers that they don’t work.
So I run through a number of tests on some well-known techniques, momentum, RSI and so on and I was showing on different FX pairs how the results were actually poor, both in profit, where there was a profit, and substantially in drawdown because many showed a heavy drawdown which was obviously not something which could be sustainable by most of the traders.
So during this presentation which took a long time because I wanted to go in the specific detail of everything, one of the attendees started claiming things like: “Your tests don’t go anywhere, I see large drawdown, I don’t think your tests are effective at all!” and he left the webinar.
This is fine, but obviously, he did not get the message, he did not probably understand that I was showing that to prove what things didn’t work.
I showed that to put a basis and then to move towards the direction of showing what could be done to find something that could be more effective in the markets.
So he left, not understanding my message. My fault probably, but also not caring at all about the phenomena which were there, which were shown.
I mean, I’m telling you this doesn’t work, everybody says it works, but it doesn’t because the numbers show it does not. Second thing, this very same day I received an email from a friend of mine, a trader, Kurt Sakaeda. He is a very skilled trader, he has won the World Cup championship on futures twice and once with a percentage which is much better than mine.
I think he made 929% something like that. He works mostly with seasonal on futures, based on his statistical research.
He was complaining let’s say, that many people asked him how to make money in the markets but they immediately get bored as soon as he goes into details.
The same day, a newsletter from Emilio Tomasini, who is an Italian trader and educator, and in his email, among the other things, he was stating the importance of understanding.
He was complaining about those who were subscribing one month and then just following the indications of his recommendations, not understanding at all what was behind the reasons why he was doing what he was showing to do.
He said that with no knowledge, with no understanding of what you’re doing you can’t go very far, he said how important it is to understand.
So 3 episodes on the same day and all of them were actually showing how the crowd facing trading in many cases don’t care about understanding how to trade.
They care about money!
Which is fine! I mean everybody wants to make money, this is pretty much obvious but it is very dangerous if you do that, only because your engine is pulled by the greed and you don’t care about the pressure of your wheels, you don’t care about putting oil in your engine, you might have some trouble!
This is pretty much obvious in terms of driving a car but it is in everything you do and it is important to study to understand things.
Not always you have the time or you have the skill to study, but consider that if you achieve a goal with your efforts putting your knowledge, your efforts into your path you will be much more grateful about your achievement.
Imagine if you climb on the top of the Everest.
You can also reach the top of the Everest through a helicopter, the panorama is beautiful in both cases but the satisfaction obviously in the first case is much much bigger. Not everybody can climb the Everest, not everybody has physical skills, time to train, to climb the Everest, maybe not even the will to try and so obviously they want to reach the top through some other means, which is fine in some cases but obviously in that case you have to rely on somebody who has experience and knowledge about what he is doing.
If you go with somebody who’s seen Mountains only in some postcards, I think it is very dangerous to rely on him to climb the Everest with some means of transportation.
So actually this is pretty much obvious that if you want to get help and guidance from somebody on a specific field, at least if you are not able or do not have the time and will to increase your personal skills, you should try to prove and to really check how skilled the fellows you refer to are in real life in that specific task.
This is true for trading, I talk about trading, but it is true for everything in life and the Everest example I think is a good example to show how important it is to go with somebody who knows what he’s doing.
That’s it, I mean three things in one day happened so I really wanted to transmit this concept and my thoughts to you.
Maybe next time I get to something more technical but I hope you liked it and you enjoyed it.
See you next time ciao from and Andrea Unger.